Far-Right Parties Lead Polls in Germany, UK and France for First Time in Modern Era

Far-right populist parties are now leading opinion polls in Europe’s three largest
economies simultaneously for the first time in modern political history.
In Germany, a poll released on Tuesday by the Forsa Institute placed Alternative für
Deutschland (AfD) ahead of all rivals on 26%, surpassing the centre-right CDU/CSU
bloc on 24%. It is the first time the party has topped a national survey in years, marking
a significant breakthrough for the anti-immigration, Eurosceptic movement.

In the United Kingdom, Reform UK has been ahead of both the Labour and
Conservative parties have been in several polls in recent months. A major YouGov model earlier
this summer suggested Reform could emerge as the largest party if an election were
held immediately, capitalizing on voter dissatisfaction with the main parties over the
economy, immigration and public services.

In France, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) has maintained a comfortable lead in
national opinion surveys since the spring. Under party president Jordan Bardella, RN
has consolidated support ahead of the 2027 presidential race, with polls showing it
significantly ahead of President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist alliance and the left-wing
coalition.

Analysts say the simultaneous rise of the far right in all three countries reflects public
frustration over cost-of-living pressures, concerns about migration, disillusionment with
traditional parties and backlash against green policies seen as costly.

While the electoral systems in Germany, the UK and France differ sharply and coalition
politics or two-round voting could limit the far right’s route to power, their dominance in
current polling marks a notable shift in Europe’s political landscape.

The trend could influence future debates on immigration, climate policy, relations with
the European Union and the war in Ukraine, with populist parties promising stricter
border controls, slower green transitions and a more nationalist approach to foreign
affairs.

Photo – Tino Chrupalla and Alice Weidel, (Sebastian Kahnert/dpa/picture alliance)